Why Arvind Kejriwal Won? | Delhi Election Analysis
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party has, once again,secured victory in the Delhi elections with a massive majorityIt is a huge achievement- winning two elections consecutively and that too, with almost 90% of seatsBut what’s interesting is that this is the same public of Delhi,which had instated Narendra Modi on the seat of Prime Minister last yearby according him a resounding majorityAnd now they have placed Arvind Kejriwal on the seat of the Chief Minister, once again,with a resounding majority
How is this possible and what could be the reasons behind this?
Come, let us do an analysisIt is not that BJP left any stone unturned in their campaigningThey put in all their effort with all the machinery and all the man power that they possessedNarendra Modi, Amit Shah- 40 star campaigners were called in from outside of Delhiwhich included a lot of celebrities- Gautam Gambhir, Hema Malini, Sunny Deolwhich also included chief ministers of other states- like Yogi Adityanath.
There were also ex- chief ministers of the other states- for example, Devendra FadnavisEven Union ministers had come in to campaign for BJPThe only problem was that there was nothing to campaign aboutThey had no positive agendaShaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh… Shaheen Bagh……Desh ke gaddaron ko ( all the traitors of this country)
The sit in protests of Shaheen Bagh are all excusesI don’t even want to get started on Shaheen BaghBJP’s entire election campaigning was about issues like Hindu Muslim, Pakistan, Shaheen Bagh, Mandir masjidEvery second day one of its politicians would give out provocative speechesand talk about killing, hitting, and vandalizingThey had no positive agenda to offer from their side,
But on the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party was its complete oppositeAam Aadmi Party talked only about positive things in its campaigningIssues like education, healthcare, school, hospitals electricity and water were talked aboutand only these things were focused uponThe votes will go to those who construct schools and hospitals.
The votes will go to those who provide electricity and waterThe votes will go to those who lay down roads, drains, streets and those who get CCTV cameras installedWe will only talk about constructive things in DelhiThere was a complete positive campaign on hand while a complete negative campaign on the otherSuch a clear cut difference has probably never been seen in any other Indian elections till dateBJP could not understand
how to counter this positive campaign of Aam Aadmi PartyIt got so confused that it was unable to decide its own policiesSometimes, it would criticize the freebies of the Aam Aadmi Partyand sometimes it would say that it would give five times more freebiesEventually, when the BJP finally released its manifesto, it offered a different type of freebies.
The Aam Aadmi Party focussed on free electricity and free educationThe BJP declared in its manifesto that it would provide free scooties for the girlsAs the elections neared, the opinion polls showed that Aam Aadmi Party was way ahead of BJPThey would easily win the electionsThe BJP became even more desperate.
They took off their masks and openly began to polarize people on Hindu Muslim and religious linesThey began to call people “Pakistani”They even branded Arvind Kejriwal as a terroristKejriwal is asking whether he is a terroristYes, you (Arvind kejriwal) are indeed a terrorist.
Who would believe them on such futile allegations and such a lot of negativity?They brought in Yogi Adityanath for campaigningwhile Uttar Pradesh, in matters of healthcare , education and law and order,comes last in comparison to other states in IndiaHis own state is not being handled wellBut they brought in Yogi Adityanath for campaigning in Delhi-whose education and healthcare model is being talked about all over the worldSo
who would believe Yogi Adityanath and vote for his party?
Take care of your own state first!It is interesting to note the vote share of these parties earlier and this timeIn the elections of 2015, Aam Aadmi Party secured almost 54% of the vote shareThis was almost maintained in 2020- it secured a vote share of 53.7%So the vote share of the Aam Aadmi Party reduced by a mere 0.8%But the vote share of BJP in 2015 was 32%The vote share increased by 6%. It became 38% in 2020Congress had a vote share of 10% in 2015.
This fell to 4%Observing only the vote shares, then it would so seem that the Congress voters shifted towards BJPBut this cannot be said for sure because the overall voter turnout was 67% in 2015and it is 62% in 2020So it might also be that the people who would have voted for the Congress did not show up to voteand so the vote share of the BJP seems larger,
But it might also happen that the BJP supporters came to vote consistentlyBut an even more interesting comparison is that with the 2019 Lok SabhaIn the Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured a vote share of 56% from DelhiNow in 2020, it has fallen to 38%So the extra 18% votesThese 18-20% peoplethey are the people
who vote for Modi as PM as well Kejriwal as CM
These are the people that are not very attached to ideologyThey are not that attached to any party that they would become blind supporters and vote for the same partyThey are simply those people who feel Modi is a better choice for PM and Kejriwal is a better choice for CM
What is the reason behind this?
You could say that one reason is that the peoplehave begun to understand the difference between the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabhathat one election is for the Centre and the other is for the state and there are separate issues on both the sidesBut (there’s) another reason, which in my opinion, is quite importantIn my opinion, this section of voters look for a strong personality in a CM-PM face or an individual leader.
They also look for credibility and capabilityThey saw this credibility in Modi as PM, but not in Rahul GandhiThey saw this credibility in Arvind Kejriwal as CM, but not in Manoj TiwariSo basically, that one leaderwhich has been put forward by the party as the CM/PM faceand on the other hand,
whatever the CM face- albeit unannounced as to who is going to be the CMbut whoever the people feel is going to be the likely CM- for example, Manoj TiwariThe same was in the case for the PMThe image of Narendra Modi as in individual leader in the minds of the peopleis a lot better as compared to the image of Rahul Gandhi and there are a lot of reasons for thisOne reason is that Rahul Gandhi is a dynastic politician
He will always be burdened by the baggage of family history that he cannot do away withThe second reason is that the godi media has time and again destroyed the image of Rahul Gandhiand has bolstered the image of Narendra Modi through fake and scripted interviewsSimilarly,
the image of Arvind Kejriwal is far better in the minds of people due to his work and historyas compared to Manoj TiwariBecause the history of Manoj Tiwari is that he participated in Big Boss, fought with Dolly Bindra,danced on songs like “baby beer pee ke naache”So his image automatically gets degraded in the minds of the people due to these things
But a factor of Godi media definitely comes into play hereThe Godi media, which in my opinion, is bought over by the BJP and dances to its tunes,(it) could easily have destroyed the image of Arvind Kejriwal, if it had so desiredBut Arvind Kejriwal made use of the godi media very cleverly to counter themselvesArvind Kejriwal’s strategy of handling the mediais the next reason,
which in my opinion, is a big reason behind the resounding victory of the Aam Aadmi PartyBasically, when we listen to the Godi media, then most of the opposition politiciansthink that they should completely boycott themand then only its going to be better if we do not go on to their channels
This is what the Congress had thought of doing in 2019It did not go to most of these news channels for an interviewRahul Gandhi hardly gave any interviewsBut Narendra Modi went onto these news channels to give interviews one after the otherA lot of these interviews were scripted and planned beforehand
But what happens because of this is that the common public will still watch the TV at nightthey just got to see Modi on itThey just got to watch the scripted interviews of ModiThey hardly got to see anything from Rahul GandhiAnd whenever Rahul Gandhi was talked about, the anchors of the godi media criticized him
This severely affected the image of Rahul GandhiBut what Arvind Kejriwal did was that he went to these mediahouses for interviews instead of boycotting themTownhalls were conductedin which live interviews were conducted on stage infront of the audiences
This has two advantagesOne was that Arvind Kejriwal was seen on TV channelsand since he was giving interviews, the people got to hear what he had to say for himself on the TV channelsHe was able to get his message across to the peopleAnd second was that whenever the godi media anchors tried to twist the narrative in some way or the otherinto Hindu Muslim, Pakistan or Shaheen Bagh,then Arvind Kejriwal was able to answer himself openly right thereand the audience was clappingWe are amongst Shaheen Bagh
We have not distanced ourselvesWe have not distanced ourselves. We have run schools, we have run hospitals, we laid down roadsWe got CCTV cameras installedWe have… The chaos that has been created by them within the countryThe chaos that has been created by them within the countryIt has been created because they are unable to handle unemployment
The bad shape of the economy within the countryThey do not have the courage to talk about economyThey do not have the courage to talk about unemploymentThey are so powerful, they can shut down their channelThis is why all they (talk about) is Hindu Muslim all dayOne minute… Let me speakAll they do is Hindu Muslim all 24 hours… This country is comprised of different faiths.
This country is made of all different castesEvery person is ready to sacrifice his life for this countrySo a very positive perception colored Arvind Kejriwal’s image due to these town hallsObviously, all these interviews and all this campaigning would have been of no usefor the Aam Aadmi Party had they not done any workBut they did workAnd all of this work is visible.
The people have seen itTherefore, this is the most important factor behind their victory in my opinionTheir workThe work they have done in the education field… They improved the schoolsThey made the mohalla clinics model famous all over the worldThe electricity bills of the people were made cheaper.
This was visible to the peopleThe people can see all the work and hence they voted for himHe fulfilled his promisesI
have explained it in this video. I’ve shown their report card to display all the works doneand the places that they failed to deliverexactly in the past 5 yearsYou can click on the “i” button to watch this video
One thing has to be conceded- the core supporter base of the BJPis staunchly dedicated towards its partyor maybe I should say that they are blind voters of their partyRight from 1998 until 2020, the vote share of BJP in the Delhi elections has remained more or less constantIn 1998, it was 34%, it was 36% in 2008, now it is 38%I mean
I do not understand why these people vote for the BJPHave you become so blind in devotion for your partythat you cannot open your eyes and see?
Are you not able to see what the BJP has done in Delhi until today?
The BJP has been ruling MCD for 15 yearsWhat has been BJP’s achievement in the past 15 years?Somebody count and tell meYou would not be able to count (even) ten achievements. Because no work has been doneAnd it is not a matter of pride that no matter what, we will always vote for one partyeven though they might destroy the nation,
we will still vote for this party
This is not going to benefit the country in any wayThere was such a clear distinction here- that one party has no agenda and on the other handvotes were being cast on the basis of the work done. But no, you still had to vote for themIt is incomprehensible. If you are one amongst this 38% people,and are reading this article, then write down in the comments and tell us what you like so muc (in BJP)
Do you like their work or are you afraid
if you do not vote for the BJP the hindus will be in dangerLet me tell you one thing if you adhere to this thoughtobserve that the Hindus become endangered right before electionsRight now the Hindu would feel safeBut before the Bihar elections, this topic of the Hindus being in danger would be raised againand then later
it would be raised in the Bengal electionsSo introducing politics in faith is just a means to fool youOverall, the best thing due to this election results would be that the rest of the political parties would also feelthat if they work, then the elections can be won on the basis of the work doneAnd the elections cannot be won on the basis of hatred and negativity
So hopefully, in the future elections, the election campaigning would be more positiveand the leaders of the different partiesIf they declare themselves as the face of the CM, then they might try to debate with one another
This will be a positive thing for the people and the public as well as the leadersbecause they will be able to discuss their agendas openly with one anotherOn the other hand, the success of the Delhi Development Model is proved by this election result
The rest of the states can draw inspiration from the kind of work done by themand can utilize this development model in their own statesFor example, Maharashtra has stated that they would make electricity free uptil 100 units,having drawn inspiration from the Delhi modelBut an important thing to note for the rest of the states would be thatthe Delhi model might appear like a freebie, observing from the outsidethat everything is being given out for free here
But that is merely one side of the coinOn the flip side, you also have to ensure that the economic growth is maintained properlyand that the Revenue surplus is maintainedand that corruption is minimized so that these freebies can actually be affordedMoney is managed in a proper mannerSo if the rest of the states want to adopt it, then they must keep a tab of these things too